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Mexico is a Major Contributor to the World´s Economic Growth

1 December 2010 2 Comments

The world is going through a big change in which emerging markets are becoming more and more important. Mexico is one of these countries. According to a recent worldwide study by the financial group BBVA, Mexico is part of a select group of ten countries called EAGLES which stands for Emerging and Growth Leading Economies. This group is joined by a select group of countries that deserve particular attention for their individual contributions to global economic growth over the next ten years.

The EAGLES group consists of China, India, Brazil, Korea, Indonesia, Russia, Mexico, Turkey, Egypt and Taiwan, according to their contribution to global economic growth. According to BBVA the criteria to become an EAGLES member are more accurate than the BRIC´s. This is because it focuses on the incremental GDP of the countries rather than in its absolute value. For example, Korea and Indonesia will contribute more to global growth over the next ten years than Russia. Also, countries of the EAGLES group that are not within the BRIC will be more relevant to the economic growth that many of the industrialized economies.

According to BBVA, the growth of these countries exceed the growth rate of G7 countries by three or four percentage points, even when China is excluded. Mexico’s economy, according to the study, will increase by 0.5 trillion reaching 2.0, and would place it as one of the world’s major economies, on top of countries like Canada and Italy, with projected economies of 1.7 and 1.9 trillion in 2020. Growth in Mexico’s GDP will exceed that of countries GDP like Germany, England, Canada, France and Italy.

Regarding investment, countries within the group of Eagles seem to be a safe long term investment. Given the high economic growth for these countries, they could even grow an average of two percentage points lower than expected and still have a higher growth than that forecasted for Italy. Similarly, the population growth of these countries is increasing, implying that the markets are also growing, contrary to what happens with the G7 countries.

There are other countries that might join the group of Eagles, either additionally or replacing some of those in this list. Countries such as Poland, Nigeria, Thailand, Argentina, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines, among others, are at a point where, having a slightly higher growth than expected they could be added to this select group of countries.

Do we see Mexico as one of the major drivers of global growth for the future? Mexico is part of a select group of countries leading economic growth globally, and we should recognize this. It is an important opportunity for economic cooperation and development for North America.

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